Tracking the success of people using decentralized prediction markets
LeBron James

LeBron James Index   Trade P.LBJ on Augur
(Testnet)

-0.4% 1D   -2.4% 1W   -9.9% 1M  


 

Historical Prices:
Dec 31, 2018: 52.33 (+5%)
Sep 30, 2018: 50.00

Portfolio Pdot Index will calculate the P.LBJ index value on March 31, 2019 according to the below formula:

P.LBJ Index Value = 52.33 x (2 x ( [0.30 x (A* - 22.80)/(31.80 - 22.80)] + [0.15 x (B* - 5.08)/(9.12 - 5.08)] + [0.15 x (C* - 6.38)/(10.22 - 6.38)] + [0.30 x (D* - 38.00)/(50.00 - 38.00)] ) + 0.10 )

where:

A* = LeBron James Points Per Game (18/19 Regular Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 22.80, max 31.80}

B* = LeBron James Assists Per Game (18/19 Regular Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 5.08, max 9.12}

C* = LeBron James Rebounds Per Game (18/19 Regular Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 6.38, max 10.22}

D* = LA Lakers Team Wins (18/19 Regular Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 38.00, max 50.00}

Markets Expiring Mar 31, 2019


Points Per Game (30%)

Assists Per Game (15%)

Rebounds Per Game (15%)

Team Wins (30%)

**10% of the index is allocated to Stable Value
 
Ariana Grande

Ariana Grande Index   Trade P.ARI on Augur
(Testnet)

+ 0.5% 1D   + 6.1% 1W   + 14.5% 1M  


 

Historical Prices:
Dec 31, 2018: 70.67 (+41%)
Sep 30, 2018: 50.00

Portfolio Pdot Index will calculate the P.ARI index value on March 31, 2019 according to the below formula:

P.ARI Index Value = 70.67 x (2 x ( [0.25 x (A* - 145.10)/(157.10 - 145.10)] + [0.20 x (B* - 59.80)/(63.40 - 59.80)] + [0.20 x (C* - 116.00)/(316.00 - 116.00)] + [0.25 x (1 - (D* - 1.70)/(13.70 - 1.70))] ) + 0.10 )

where:

A* = Ariana Grande Number of Instagram Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 145.10, max 157.10}

B* = Ariana Grande Number of Twitter Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 59.80, max 63.40}

C* = Ariana Grande Average Composite Score of Songs Listed on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart from the Week of Jan 5, 2019 to the Week of Mar 30, 2019 {min 116.00 , max 316.00} ... (The Billboard Hot 100 Composite Score will be calculated each week as the sum of [100 minus each song's rank on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart]. For example, if Ariana Grande has a three songs on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart in a given week (with ranks of 1, 15, and 22) - the composite score for that week will be calculated as (100-1)+(100-15)+(100-22)=262. Includes songs by Ariana Grande and songs featuring Ariana Grande. The final value will be calculated as the sum of Ariana Grande’s Billboard Hot 100 Composite Score each week from Jan 5, 2019 to Mar 30, 2019, divided by the total number of weeks (13) in this time period. If there are no Ariana Grande songs on the chart in a given week, a value of 0 should be used for that week’s Composite Score in the calculation.)

D* = Ariana Grande Average Position on the Billboard Artist 100 Chart from the Week of Jan 5, 2019 to the Week of Mar 30, 2019 {min 1.70, max 13.70} ... (This value will be calculated as the sum of Ariana Grande’s position (rank) on the Billboard Artist 100 Chart each week from Jan 5, 2019 to Mar 30, 2019, divided by the total number of weeks (13) in this time period. If Ariana Grande does not appear on the list in a given week, a value of 100 should be used for that week’s position (rank) in the calculation.)

Markets Expiring Mar 31, 2019


Instagram Followers (25%)

Twitter Followers (20%)

Billboard Hot 100 (20%)

Billboard Artist 100 (25%, Inverse)

**10% of the index is allocated to Stable Value
 
Donald Trump

Donald Trump Index   Trade P.TRUMP on Augur
(Testnet)

-3.3% 1D   -2.5% 1W   + 3.4% 1M  


 

Historical Prices:
Dec 31, 2018: 35.49 (-29%)
Sep 30, 2018: 50.00

Portfolio Pdot Index will calculate the P.TRUMP index value on March 31, 2019 according to the below formula:

P.TRUMP Index Value = 35.49 x (2 x ( [0.25 x (A* - 35.00)/(50.40 - 35.00)] + [0.25 x (B* - 33.80)/(49.20 - 33.80)] + [0.15 x (C* - 57.20)/(60.70 - 57.20)] + [0.25 x (D* - 15.00)/(45.00 - 15.00)] ) + 0.10 )

where:

A* = Donald Trump RealClearPolitics Approval Rating (%) on March 31, 2019 {min 35.00, max 50.40}

B* = Donald Trump FiveThirtyEight Approval Rating (%) on March 31, 2019 {min 33.80, max 49.20}

C* = Donald Trump Number of Twitter Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 57.20, max 60.70}

D* = Donald Trump PredictIt 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Market Close Price (Cents) on March 31, 2019 {min 15.00, max 45.00}

Markets Expiring Mar 31, 2019


RCP Approval Rating (25%)

538 Approval Rating (25%)

Twitter Followers (15%)

PredictIt 2020 Election Odds (25%)

**10% of the index is allocated to Stable Value
 
Cristiano Ronaldo

Cristiano Ronaldo Index   Trade P.CRON on Augur
(Testnet)

+ 0.3% 1D   + 4.5% 1W   + 10.1% 1M  


 

Historical Prices:
Dec 31, 2018: 50.00

Portfolio Pdot Index will calculate the P.CRON index value on March 31, 2019 according to the below formula:

P.CRON Index Value = 50 x (2 x ( [0.35 x (A* - 17)/(25 - 17)] + [0.20 x (B* - 5)/(11 - 5)] + [0.25 x (C* - 23)/(27 - 23)] + [0.10 x (D* - 153)/(161 - 153)] ) + 0.10 )

where:

A* = Cristiano Ronaldo Total Goals Scored (18/19 Serie A Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 17.00, max 25.00}

B* = Cristiano Ronaldo Total Assists (18/19 Serie A Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 5.00, max 11.00}

C* = Juventus F.C. Team Wins (18/19 Serie A Season) through March 31, 2019 {min 23.00, max 27.00}

D* = Cristiano Ronaldo Number of Instagram Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 153.00, max 161.00}

Markets Expiring Mar 31, 2019


Total Goals (35%)

Total Assists (20%)

Juventus Team Wins (25%)

Instagram Followers (10%)

**10% of the index is allocated to Stable Value
 
Kylie Jenner

Kylie Jenner Index   Trade P.KYLIE on Augur
(Testnet)

-0.3% 1D   + 2.8% 1W   + 8.4% 1M  


 

Historical Prices:
Dec 31, 2018: 50.00

Portfolio Pdot Index will calculate the P.KYLIE index value on March 31, 2019 according to the below formula:

P.KYLIE Index Value = 50 x (2 x ( [0.35 x (1-(A* - 14.90)/(38.90 - 14.90))] + [0.35 x (B* - 126.10)/(132.10 - 126.10)] + [0.15 x (C* - 25.40)/(27.40 - 25.40)] + [0.05 x (D* - 21.40)/(22.90 - 21.40)] ) + 0.10 )

where:

A* = Kyliecosmetics.com Alexa Rank (Thousands) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 14.90, max 38.90}

B* = Kylie Jenner Number of Instagram Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 126.10, max 132.10}

C* = Kylie Jenner Number of Twitter Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 25.40, max 27.40}

D* = Kylie Jenner Number of Facebook Fanpage Likes (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 21.40, max 22.90}

Markets Expiring Mar 31, 2019


Kylie Cosmetics Alexa Rank (35%, Inverse)

Instagram Followers (35%)

Twitter Followers (15%)

Facebook Fanpage Likes (5%)

**10% of the index is allocated to Stable Value
 
PewDiePie

PewDiePie Index   Trade P.PEWD on Augur
(Testnet)

+ 0.6% 1D   + 2.2% 1W   + 18.7% 1M  


 

Historical Prices:
Dec 31, 2018: 50.00

Portfolio Pdot Index will calculate the P.PEWD index value on March 31, 2019 according to the below formula:

P.PEWD Index Value = 50 x (2 x ( [0.35 x (A* - 81.10)/(97.10 - 81.10)] + [0.30 x (B* - 20.10)/(21.10 - 20.10)] + [0.15 x (C* - 15.20)/(16.60 - 15.20)] + [0.10 x (D* - 16.50)/(17.50 - 16.50)] ) + 0.10 )

where:

A* = PewDiePie Number of YouTube Subscribers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 81.10, max 97.10}

B* = PewDiePie Number of Total YouTube Views (Billions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 20.10, max 21.10}

C* = PewDiePie Number of Instagram Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 15.20, max 16.60}

D* = PewDiePie Number of Twitter Followers (Millions) on March 31, 2019 at 12:00AM PST {min 16.50, max 17.50}

Markets Expiring Mar 31, 2019


YouTube Subscribers (35%)

YouTube Total Views (30%)

Instagram Followers (15%)

Twitter Followers (10%)

**10% of the index is allocated to Stable Value
 

To trade in these markets, download the Augur app.

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More indexes coming soon.

How it Works

Portfolio Construction
Sample Portfolio

Pdot Index uses decentralized prediction markets to track the success of celebrities and public figures.


A Pdot index is a synthetic index designed to track the success of an individual person. The value of each index is derived from a basket of key performance indicators , or KPIs, tracked using decentralized prediction markets on Augur. Each index attempts to measure a person’s performance across one or more of the following dimensions: Achievements & Accolades, Financial Success, and Popularity.

Pdot indexes can be traded using a special type of prediction market called a scalar market. In a scalar market, the final payout is based on the actual outcome’s value within a numerical range – which means that the current share price should represent the most likely outcome at a given point in time. As time progresses towards the market’s expiration, the most likely outcome may change, and as it does the share price (which is the index’s value) will adjust accordingly.

To construct an index, the portfolio manager will first select a set of KPIs (along with their relative weightings) that will comprise the index. Pdot will then create a scalar market on Augur that resolves to the index’s value at expiration, based on the portfolio parameters. The indexes are designed to be rebalanced once every 3 months, which means that the underlying markets will typically have an expiration date equal to quarter-end. It is on this quarter-end date that the index values will resolve to reality, based on the actual KPIs and their real-world values.

Each KPI will have a minimum and maximum value. These bounds determine the volatility profile of each index (tighter bounds offer more leverage). If the actual outcome ends up at or below the KPI’s minimum value, the KPI’s contributed value will be zero. If the actual outcome ends up at or above the KPI’s maximum value, the KPI’s contributed value will be worth two times its value at the midpoint of the range. To ensure an appropriate level of volatility, Pdot will select KPIs with minimum and maximum values defined by the 5th and 95th percentile outcomes, based on a proprietary analysis performed at the beginning of the trading period. This means that we can expect a 5% chance that each KPI’s contributed value will be zero at expiration date. Likewise, we can expect a 5% chance that each KPI’s contributed value will increase 2x from the midpoint (which is typically the index’s entry point) at expiration date.

The current value of each index is simply a weighted sum of the adjusted KPI contributed values – normalized between 0 and 1 – for each KPI in the index’s portfolio (see the example formula above). To control volatility and to ensure that the index’s value will never fall to zero, the index will always keep 10% of the portfolio allocated to stable value. This means that the index’s value will never fall by (or rise by) more than 90% in a given 3-month period.

A portfolio manager may change the composition of an index at any time (although changes are expected to occur only during the quarterly rollover period). To do this, the total value of the portfolio is reallocated to the new set of KPIs. Note that a portfolio rebalance will have no immediate impact on the current value of the index. The most up-to-date list of each index’s underlying KPIs (as well as their bounds and relative weightings) will always be visible on Pdot Index.

Note: Pdot Index only creates markets on the Rinkeby Ethereum Testnet (Rinkeby Ether can be obtained through the free Rinkeby Authenticated Faucet). Pdot Index has no control over market creation or trading activity that happens on the Ethereum Mainnet, or on any other platform outside of PdotIndex.com. Pdot Index has no affiliation with any external markets that may become available.


All indexes are powered by decentralized prediction markets on Augur.

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Pdot Index

Tracking the success of people using decentralized prediction markets.

Powered by Augur

Created in 2018